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AI

17 articles in this tag

·5 min read

Survivorship Bias Is the Original Sin of Startup Scoring

Almost every startup-scoring model is trained on companies that survived — because failures leave no structured trace. The fix isn't a cleverer architecture, it's the negative class: label the dead ones and weight them equally. Field notes on wiring a real failure class into a training corpus, and the two things that broke.

·6 min read

The Rows Everyone Deletes: What 6,900 Accelerator Outcomes Taught Us

We built an outcome graph of ~6,900 accelerator companies — every Y Combinator batch and publicly announced Startmate cohorts — and linked each to what happened next. Three lessons: failure is the training data everyone throws away, selection and success are different instruments, and the outcome is the only signal that doesn't flatter you.

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